Tariff Wave Hits Global Shipping; US-bound Sea Freight in “Deep Freeze”

Under the thick shadow of the US tariff policies, rumors of "large-scale sailings cancellations by shipping companies" have been rife. It is worth noticing that while the number of voyages on the routes to the United States has sharply decreased, routes such as those between Asia and Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America have shown a growth trend against the current.

Since the United States officially implemented its reciprocal tariff policy on April 2nd, the high tariffs have been like huge stones thrown into a tranquil lake, setting off great waves in the foreign trade industry, and the maritime shipping market has also been deeply affected. In the face of these changes, foreign trade merchants are actively expanding their business territory and seeking a diversified layout. The maritime shipping industry is also unwilling to be passive and is going all out to open up new channels for Chinese goods to go overseas. The markets in Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia have risen opportunely and have become the "alternative solutions" for foreign trade enterprises to avoid risks and open up new situations, sketching a brand-new picture of the reshaping of the maritime shipping trade pattern.

Stagnant Shipping and Shrinking Capacity: US-bound Sea Freight Enters “Deep Freeze”

Currently, the sailings cancellations in the US-bound market have become the most concerning issue in the industry, and they also serve as a signal for the future direction of the foreign trade market.

The latest container shipping weekly report updated by the shipping consulting agency Drewry shows that in the next five weeks, 83 voyages will be cancelled on the east-west main routes, accounting for 12% of the planned 713 voyages. Among these 83 voyages, approximately 53% are on the trans-Pacific eastbound routes (routes starting from Asia, crossing the Pacific Ocean, and finally reaching North America), 29% are on the Asia-Northern Europe and Mediterranean routes, and 18% are on the trans-Atlantic westbound routes (mainly referring to the maritime shipping channels connecting Europe and the east coast of the Americas).

The picture is from the Internet.

This data shows that the shipping capacity of the routes from China to North America will be significantly reduced, and it is also the route with the greatest change among the world's major maritime shipping channels.

Data provided by Flexport to Jiemian News shows that recently, the number of blank sailings on the routes to the United States has climbed, leading to a significant reduction in shipping capacity in April. The market has seen approximately a 20% reduction in shipping capacity. Moreover, due to the adjustment or temporary interruption of some route services, the available shipping space has become even tighter.

According to a report in the Global Times, the container booking volume for shipments to the United States surged in the first quarter, but there are now signs of a "collapse," and the phenomenon of "booking freezes for imported containers in the United States" is widespread. Data provided by the trade data platform Vizion shows that due to tariff uncertainties, the container booking volume for shipments to the United States has dropped significantly by 67% compared to the previous week, and the container booking volume departing from the United States has decreased by 40%.

At the same time, US ports have also issued warnings of a decline in imports. The Port of Long Beach and the Port of Los Angeles in California are the two largest ports in the United States in terms of throughput. According to a report in the Global Times, the senior management of both ports have disclosed reminders that the future port throughput will decline. Specifically, the freight volume of the Port of Long Beach may plummet by 20% in the second half of 2025, and the Port of Los Angeles expects its throughput to decrease by 10% starting from May. Moreover, it is expected that there will be 12 cancelled or blank voyages at this port in May.

There are reports that the Ocean Alliance, which is composed of four shipping companies, namely China COSCO Shipping (COSCO), CMA CGM of France, Evergreen Marine Corporation (EMC), and Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL), will cancel three routes to Los Angeles at the end of April. ZIM Shipping Company also plans to suspend operations for two months.

Breaking through Tariffs Drives Pattern Reconstruction: European and Asian Markets Emerge as New Blue Oceans for Foreign Trade

Currently, the shipping routes to Latin America, Europe, and Southeast Asia are all focal points of attention.

On April 10, 2025, local time, the European Commission announced that it had reached a consensus with China. The two sides will launch negotiations to replace the current tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles with a "minimum import price" mechanism. On April 11, the European Union reached an agreement with China to replace the originally planned tariffs with a "minimum selling price commitment". This has sent a positive signal to the market, and foreign trade enterprises and sellers have started to increase their layout in the European market. "The foreign trade enterprises that we communicate with have a growing demand for diversified logistics. There are those exporting from China to Europe, as well as those exporting from Southeast Asia to Europe. The demand for logistics solutions for overseas-to-overseas shipments has increased," said Uni-Cargo.

The picture is from the Internet.

In terms of the Southeast Asian shipping routes, influenced by factors such as tariffs and the approaching International Workers' Day, the cargo volume is showing a positive trend, and it is expected that the freight rates will generally rise. Especially in the late April, some ships may depart late, suspend voyages, or skip ports, leading to a tightening of shipping capacity. It is predicted that around the International Workers' Day, routes to Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and other places may experience a situation of full cabins. Customers are advised to book shipping space in advance.

The South American market is also an area that China's foreign trade industry is actively expanding into. In the middle of April, the direct shipping route from Zhuhai to Santana Port in Brazil officially set sail at the Gaolan Port International Container Terminal in the Zhuhai Economic and Technological Development Zone. The "Changmin" vessel on its maiden voyage was loaded with home appliance assembly parts for Gree Group's factory in Brazil, green organic fertilizers provided by Zoomlion Latin America (used to improve the soil compaction problem in Brazil), photovoltaic panel samples and accessories, etc.

Starting from Gaolan Port, this shipping route passes through the Strait of Malacca and the Cape of Good Hope, and directly reaches Santana Port and Salvador Port in Brazil. It reaches the core production areas of minerals and agricultural products in Brazil, as well as the industrial belt in the northeastern part, and radiates the entire emerging South American market.

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Sources: Jiemian News, Global Times and other online materials.

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